Dear Delegates,

Welcome to NCSC XXXVI and to the Exxon Mobil Board of Directors simulation. The entire staff is looking forward to working with you to craft a realistic simulation that will hopefully be not only fun and exciting, but which will provide some insights into the consequences of current trends. David Yergin, a scholar of the history of oil, once remarked that “what the economist Jevons had said in the nineteenth century about coal was now, a century later, true not for coal but for oil. It stood above all other commodities; it was the universal aid, the factor in almost everything we did.” We look to explore where this next century will take us.

Our staff is led by our Crisis Manager Asif Ahsan, and the Chair John Tincoff. Asif is a rising senior in the Georgetown School of Foreign Service (SFS), majoring in International Political Economy (IPEC) and a certificate in International Business Diplomacy (IBD). Reveling in his role as NCSC Executive Director-Emeritus, Asif is looking forward to returning from his lofty heights of Secretariat-dom to work alongside delegates once more. Aside from his extensive Model UN experience, Asif also brings valuable years of exposure to finance through work in investment banks such as Citigroup. His partner in machinations, John, is also a rising senior in the SFS majoring in IPEC and pursuing an IBD certificate. John is the Chair Emeritus of the Georgetown International Relations Club, and hopes to bring to bear a long history of work on energy affairs both in policy and finance. He has served on staff at every NCSC since his freshman year, and is happy to be joining you for his last!

This year’s Joint Crisis seeks to accomplish something often in short supply in model UN circuits: a future crisis simulation that is entirely plausible. Drawn from scholarly reports and predictions instead of merely the imaginations of the crisis staff, our simulation is rooted in current trends being taken to their logical conclusions. The rise of younger National Oil Companies (NOCs) as energy powerhouses is being paralleled by the ascent of International Oil Companies (IOCs) as formidable peers with global reach. Although NOCs retain the vast majority of the confirmed reserves in the world today, they historically lack the capitalization and expertise brought to the table by their multi-national competitors, the IOCs. Given that resource scarcity is one of the themes of this new century, it is both fitting and proper that NCSC endeavor to provide this kind of simulation. All of our issues take place in the context of a changing international context, as American hegemony is questioned by the appearance of rival poles of influence, a shift bringing both volatility and opportunity.

Our simulation, therefore, focuses on the world’s most important players and their interactions with each other. We have chosen to turn to Exxon Mobil, the world’s largest company (by revenue) and the largest of the six Big Oil majors. With a long and storied past, Exxon Mobil will have to seek to re-define itself in the changing energy scene as resurgent NOCs and establishment IOCs engaged in a quiet but high-stakes game for the ultimate prize. Unlike the war games our fellow delegates are engaged in, this is not fated to end in nuclear exchange, or any way else for that matter. The end taken will depend on the choices made and paths taken in committee, as delegates struggle to deal with the tremulous world of January 2009. The interplay of major trends like energy scarcity and economic interdependence still dominate the global system, however, the decisions for Exxon Mobil and its Big Oil brethren are becoming harder by the day. The fate of global energy, and from there the world, will rest with your decisions.

Best wishes,

John Tincoff
Chair
jmt58(at)georgetown.edu

Asif Ahsan
Crisis Manager
aoa6(at)georgetown.edu